Jobless claims rise again in another sign that labor market is cooling

On February 22, 2021 in New York City, a woman is seen walking in front of a shop.
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The latest indicator that the historically tight labor market is slowing down, as evidenced by increased initial jobless claims. Labor Department dataPublished Thursday.

For the week ending July 16, claims totalled 251,000, up 7,000 over last week and more than the 240,000 Dow Jones estimate.

This gain brought the weekly filings for unemployment insurance up to the highest level since Nov. 13, 2021. It also provided an indicator of a cooling jobs market in 2021.

Continued claims rose to 1.384 millions, the highest level since April 23, a week ahead of the headline figure.

Another release on Thursday indicated some weaknesses in the job picture.

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The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing indexThe reading fell to -12.3, which is a nine-point decline from one month ago, and is significantly lower than the estimate of 1.6 Dow Jones. This number is the difference in percentage between firms reporting an increase or decrease in activity and those experiencing contraction.

The employment index fell 9 points to 19.4. This indicates an increase in hiring but it’s also the lowest reading since May 20,21. Also, this is a sign that hiring is slowing. This was the lowest reading in four months and a sign that productivity may be falling.

Respondents to the survey said that salaries were rising at companies. 78.6% of respondents reported an increase in wages and compensation, while none claimed they cut.

Inflation pressures are still rising, but they have cooled according to the survey. Prices paid and received indexes declined from a month earlier, however they both remained elevated with respective readings at 52.2 and 30.3.

Uncertainty rumbles about the economic direction.

Nonfarm payroll growth has helped to make employment the main bright spot. averaging a robust 457,000Through the first half, it was averaging 375,000 per month. But, these increases have been slowing recently, with the three most recent months seeing an average 375,000.

Other data suggests that the U.S. may be nearing the end of its meeting with the EU. rule-of-thumb definition for a recessionWith two quarters consecutively of negative growth, The first quarter’s gross domestic product saw a decline of 1.6%. It is now on the right track. decline another 1.6% in Q2The Atlanta Federal Reserve reports that it has reached a total of $1.2 billion.

Next week, Fed officials will likely raise interest rates by 0.75 percent. This would bring benchmark overnight borrowing rates to between 2.25% and 2.5%. Fed wants to slow the economy which has already produced the highest inflation rateSince 1981.

Correction: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index dropped to -12.3, which is a nine-point drop from last month. The time period was not included in an earlier version.

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